The Detroit Tigers lost their fourth straight against the division-leading Cleveland Indians last night at Jacobs Field...
If not for a 5-0 start to the month and a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals, this team would have fortunes similar to this year's Yankees.
What's missing? A bullpen, quality starts, timely hitting, and a whole slew of other minor factors could lead to the demise of the 2007 Detroit Tigers. It is still early, but missing Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney and having to send Jose Mesa to the mound every other day is killing them. And that's if they get to the bullpen with the lead.
The bullpen cost the Tigers a few games this month. Yes, just "a few," but a few is how far the Tigers are behind the division-leading Indians at this time. If Jonsey pulls the game out against Tampa, they hold on in Wednesday's game against the same team, and they keep their 2-1 lead in the second game of the double header against Boston, the Tigers are only 1/2 game out of the lead and playing for it tonight. Instead, they need to sweep the last three games to make up any real ground.
Sure, going 2-1 and ending up splitting the series keeps them within striking distance, but if they want the Indians to worry about the pressure, they better at least do that. Their wild card lead has shriveled to 2 1/2 games from about five a week or so ago as well, and if they don't pick it up, they might be also-rans this season.
But what do they do? It has to start with starting pitching. Sure, the starters have been keeping the Tigers in games with small leads going into the seventh inning, but you almost have to assume that the bullpen is going to give up a couple of runs in the last three frames for now. 4-3 isn't good enough. 4-2 is okay. 4-1, and the Tigers will likely pull it out, no matter who they give the ball to.
But that's not enough. You can't ask the pitchers to go onto the hill and only give up one run in seven innings. It just won't happen enough. So the hitting has to come around. How come every time the bats break out for 10+ runs, the Tigers can't score in the next game? They should ride the hot streak. Three runs against the Devil Rays in the top of the first (that could have easily been five or six), and then nothing for eight innings. That is unacceptable.
But what does the future hold? It looks like two months before Zumaya comes back, two weeks for Rodney, and about a month for Kenny Rogers. Inge has a little injury. Polanco has been banged up. So has Guillen. What are they putting in the water to keep this team off the field?
If the Tigers can hold on to stay within seven or eight games at the all-star break, and be within two or three of the wild card, they might be all right. Getting Zumaya back is key. Bonderman is pitching well. Durbin is surprising. Robertson will battle and Verlander (aside from last night), has been great. This team will get to the bullpen with the lead more often than not. Then, if Zumaya can get through the seventh, and a healthy Fernando Rodney can get through the eighth, the Tigers should win a large portion of their games after the break. Plus the arms will be rested for the late season when everyone is tired.
Here's what's going to happen the rest of the way:
- When Rogers comes back, Mike Maroth will be traded or sent to the bullpen. Jose Mesa will be sent to Toledo, when he refuses to go, he will be waived
- Zumaya and Rodney will pitch lights out after the break. Both with ERA's under 2.00
- Jeremy Bonderman will come in second in the Cy Young voting to Josh Beckett after pitching a no-hitter, one hitter and two hitter in the season's final two months. He will have a 32.2 inning scoreless streak to go along with it.
- Justin Verlander will come in third in the Cy Young voting behind Beckett and Bonderman
- Kenny Rogers will win ten games
- Gary Sheffield will have 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases by September 1st, and flirt with 30-30 if the Tigers get some playoff breathing room. His final line: .314/33/101 153 runs, 26 SB.
- Magglio Ordonez will hit his 70th double on the last day of the season, setting a record for most in a season, knocking in Gary Sheffield for his 153rd run, the most this decade.
- That run will give the Tigers the win and the division, after the Indians get swept by the Royals in the season's final three days
- The Tigers will meet the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS
- After that, anything can happen.
Okay, so not all that can happen. Most of it might not, but I will show all of you in October how smart I am. Make your fearless predictions. Either they won't be true, and no one will remember, or they will come true, and you will be a genius.
