10!
I'll say it again, 10!
Most would have been happy if Detroit had a chance to finish 10 games over .500 this season. How many Tiger faithful would not have taken 86-76 at the beginning of this season? I'm guessing the answer is all of them. With a win tonight, the Tigers can improve to 70-30 in their last 100 games, a .700 winning percentage.
Everyone was amazed when the Twins won 80% of 40 games, but what about 70% of 100? That's something special. If they keep playing like this, they could improve that to 70% of 162, which would be about 113 wins--a truly amazing season.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. 10 games is a lot, but there are still that many games versus the Chicago White Sox, the team that just so happens to be those ten games behind. This is far from over. yes, a .500 winning percentage would give the Tigers 101 wins, but it would be just that, a .500 winning percentage. One would think if Detroit can go 25-25 to the end of the season, the Central would be a lock, but they have to win the right 25 games.
If they were, for instance to go 25-15 against the rest of the league, and go 0-10 against the Sox, we would be looking at a race that goes to the final day. If, however, the Tigers can win 5 of their remaining 10 against Ozzie Guillen's team, then it gets much harder for the boys from Chicago to catch up.
Of course all this is basic math, but it is math that Mr. Guillen is likely spouting off every day of the week. Everyone knows that the next five games for the Tigers are crucial. It could mean winning the Central by the end of August, or allowing a race to go into the middle of September. It could mean an extra couple days rest for the likes of Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman, or three arms that are a little more tired than they should be going into October. It could mean the difference between playing that extra month or staying home watching it, knowing you played your heart out but just couldn't get over the hump.
Well, it is time to stop thinking about next year, when the Tigers will be even better, or the year after that, when, if everything falls into place, they could be unstoppable. It's time to think about this season, and the next five games--the games that will make all the difference in the world to the boys from Mowtown. Five wins, and it is all but over. At least a 13 game lead with 45 to play. No one is going to make that much ground up. Five losses, and they could be in 2nd place by September 1. About a 5 game lead with 45 to play. Pretty easy to catch with seven games left against them.
There are a few dates left on the calendar of importance: the next four consecutive Thursdays. If this team keeps playing like they have been since the break (They haven't lost a series.), it will be over. But with each Thursday comes the end of a test: Chicago, Boston, Chicago again and the New York, in that order. These are the teams that are chasing the Tigers, and in the next four weeks, we'll know more. A sweep of the White Sox this week will make the second series of the month a wash, however. If Detroit can get through Boston and New York (both away), they should win the American League. If they keep hustling, and playing to win as opposed to playing not to blow it, they should be fine.
The Tigers were swept by the Sox in April, won one of three the next time they met and two of three the last time the two clubs squared off, and they are still improving. It's time for a sweep. Buster Olney said last night that the wheels are not going to come off this team. It's time to solder them down and roll right through to September. It is time to put these teams away.
